Statistical Analysis of Pipeline Incidents

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Statistical Analysis of “Significant Incident” Data for Barnett
Shale Gas Wells - By Jerry J. Lobdill
Physicist and chemical engineer (retired)

This study produces a calibrated mathematical model of the gathering pipeline Significant Incident (SI) rate as a function of the total number of producing wells in a given region. It uses official data published by the US Department of Transportation Pipeline Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) and their Texas agency for data collection and regulation, the Texas Railroad Commission (TRC). The purpose of this model is to forecast the expected SI rate in the City of Fort Worth as the industry increases the number of producing gas wells in the City.

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if the industry succeeds in placing 3000 wells in Fort Worth there will, on average, be approximately one significant incident every 6 months in Fort Worth for as long as the wells remain active. If 5600 wells is achieved, the SI rate would be about 1 every 3.5 months.