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McCain Proposes Suspending Law of Gravity

The Nimrods Never Cease to Amaze Me
Posted by WhosPlayin on 2008/4/15 10:41:37 (1503 reads)

Even the U.S. Congress can't suspend the natural laws of the universe, like the law of gravity. Yet in a move that blatantly panders to unsophisticated Americans fed up with high gasoline prices, Sen. John McCain proposes to suspend the gasoline tax this summer.

Not only would this decrease tax revenue in a time of record budget deficits, but it would fail to significantly affect gasoline prices for consumers. The reason for this is that gasoline prices fluctuate based on supply and demand in the free market, which charges whatever consumers will bear.

To walk through this, lets say gas stations charge a certain market rate per gallon today, inclusive of federal tax. If they lower their price by the full amount of the tax they no longer pay, then a concept called "price elasticity" comes into play: This basically says that if you lower the price of something, people will buy and use more of it. Gasoline is price-elastic because the higher the price, the more people try to conserve and use less of it.

An example of a product that is non price-elastic would be table salt. You can buy a can of it for about 50 cents, but if you ran out, you'd probably pay $2 or $3 a can without sweating it, if that were the market price. If the price were lowered to a penny, you probably wouldn't use any more than you have a taste for already.

An example of a product that is really price-elastic would be something like steaks. If rib eyes were $1 a pound, I don't know about you, but I'd eat them almost every meal. If they're $14, I'll stick with hamburger and chicken.

As it turns out, summertime travel is somewhat more elastic than normal commuting in terms of gasoline demand. If prices are lower, people will use more by going on road trips, but if they're higher, folks will take their vacations at home. As demand increases, the price will find a higher level to match supply and demand.

The new price level after the tax suspension might be a few cents lower than where it is now, but not by anywhere near the full amount of the tax. In effect, what you would have is government subsidization of a few cents decrease in cost by giving back way more than a few cents. Our friends in Big Oil would pocket the difference!

As much as we all would like lower gasoline prices, this is not the way to do it, and one would hope that someone running to be President of the United States would have more economic savvy than that.

Do you think next that McCain will propose dropping taxes altogether and just having the mint print more money to pay for our government?



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Poster Thread
grbtexan
Posted: 2008/4/16 11:07  Updated: 2008/4/16 11:07
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Joined: 2008/3/7
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Posts: 9
 pandering
This is clearly an attempt to pander to those that don't understand. More over it is a pretend band aid. Although most people may welcome any relief at the pump. This is not a practical answer.
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Poster Thread
Anonymous
Posted: 2008/4/21 17:29  Updated: 2008/4/21 18:25
 uh
Uh, well, sort of.

I think you're underestimating the role marginal cost of production plays in price settlements, but if you ever take a real economics course, or perhaps even get through the first chapter of intro to econ 102, you'll get it.
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Poster Thread
WhosPlayin
Posted: 2008/4/21 18:38  Updated: 2008/4/21 18:38
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Posts: 1400
 Re: uh
Except that we're not talking about production costs here. We're talking about demand-price interactions. Understood that elasticity doesn't explain everything, but by dropping the 18 cent gas tax, the government is giving up (almost) 18 cents in revenue. Savings to the consumer will be probably less than half of that when the price settles.

Plus you'd be getting rid of a tax that is extremely efficient and fair in terms of paying for roads. Given that the government is borrowing money at this point, losing that revenue will eventually cost way more than the 18 cents due to the cost of borrowing.

There are many variables involved that would probably take a PhD to accurately model, but I'm trying to give a basic explanation of why this is not the slam dunk that we all wish it could be.

My hydraulic computer tells me all of this.
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